The Fifty-Year Fiscal Promise

Version: v10 · Canonical source: naa_canonical_parameters_v10.md

Framing

The Accord retires the federal debt within 50 years. This is an architectural guarantee, not a forecast dependent on favorable conditions. The Debt Sunset macrogovernor automatically adjusts payroll tax and top income tax rates together, within statutory corridors, whenever the Year N+4 fiscal projection drifts off target.

The canonical scenarios

Conservative scenario — same $6,300B Distributed Healthcare basis, with revenue stressed below central through the transition (no offsetting multiplier). Debt Sunset steps rates to the corridor ceiling (payroll 29.00%; top rate 53.00%) and holds until pressure eases. Debt retired ≤2079 by statute; ~2060 projected — inside the 50-year corridor.

Central scenario — Distributed Healthcare basis $6,300B. Debt Sunset mostly inactive. payroll tax near 28.00%; top rate near 52.00%. Debt retired ≤2079 by statute; ~2058 projected.

Optimistic scenario — Distributed Healthcare basis $5,010B. Debt Sunset steps downward to the corridor floor (payroll 25.00%; top rate 49.00%). Debt retired ≤2079 by statute; ~2044 projected.

The architectural lock

In every scenario, debt retires within 50 years. The difference is what tax burden households bore along the way. Debt Sunset's trigger is cause-agnostic — it responds to projected fiscal drift regardless of source.

Key parameters

Debt retirement target: within 50 years (all scenarios)

payroll tax corridor: 25.00% – 29.00%

Top rate corridor: 49.00% – 53.00% (coupled 1:1 with payroll tax)

Governor step size: 0.25pp per trigger, coupled

Trigger (up): Year N+4 projected deployable balance < $0

Trigger (down): Year N+4 projected > $1.5T for 3 consecutive years