The Fifty-Year Fiscal Promise
Version: v10 · Canonical source: naa_canonical_parameters_v10.md
Framing
The Accord retires the debt held by the public; our grandchildren will not inherit this debt. The statutory target is retirement by 2080, with the launch rates set to it. The Debt Sunset Governor is a Statistics Board calculation on the projected retirement date. Each year the Board projects, under the enacted rates, the year the debt held by the public reaches zero. If that date has moved two or more years beyond, or ahead of, the most recent retirement date, the top income rate, the VAT and the payroll rate move together, in steps, by the amount that brings the projected date back to within one year, and the new projection becomes the most recent date. Automatic moves are limited to a total of +2.0pp on the top income rate, +2.0pp on the VAT and +0.5pp on the payroll rate from the launch rates; beyond that, Congress must act. The Board sets the launch rates in Year 1 so the path is on track for retirement by 2080 with no governor trip.
Two dates are named wherever a date is discussed, never one word for both: "no external debt" (the year net borrowing from outside the government reaches zero — debt held by the public at or below the Treasury holdings of the Climate Adaptation Trust and the Financial Stability Reserve, which are stated beside the date) and "General Fund debt-free" (the year the fund owes nothing to the public or to the trusts; our grandchildren will not inherit this debt attaches to this one). The debt rises during the transition by design, above the current-law path, and the chart shows it; the Federal Reserve's liquidity operations sit outside both definitions.
The canonical scenarios
Central scenario — Distributed Healthcare basis $6,300B; the executed path. Success is the central case closing.
Optimistic scenario — Distributed Healthcare basis $5,010B; the governor's automatic band works in the relief direction as the projected date runs ahead of the most recent one.
Stress, beyond boundary — the former conservative case, now a BOUNDARY: the deterioration in growth, health cost and the interest premium, after the launch rates are set, that the governor's automatic budget still absorbs. A path outside it is reported, never suppressed. The boundary values move with every run and are published in the methodology artifact (/methodology/accounting/conservative-boundary.json), not quoted here.
The architectural lock
Canon fixes the governor's triggers, evidence, lag, band, step size and decision method. It does not prescribe a rate path, a surplus year, a debt peak or a retirement year; every fiscal outcome is calculated by the executed engine from the policies in canon. The trigger is cause-agnostic — it responds to the projected date regardless of why it moved.
Key parameters
Statutory target: debt held by the public retired by 2080, launch rates set to it
Trigger: projected retirement date two or more years beyond, or ahead of, the most recent date
Governor steps: the top income rate, the VAT and the payroll rate move together, in steps sized by the retirement-date rule, to bring the projected date back to within one year
Automatic budget: +2.0pp top income rate, +2.0pp VAT, +0.5pp payroll from the launch rates, mirrored downward for relief; beyond it, Congress must act