Housing Abundance

The Deficit

The United States has a shortage of approximately 7 million housing units. Median home prices exceed 5× median income in most metropolitan areas—the historical norm was 3×. The shortage is not a market failure; it is a regulatory failure. Local zoning codes in virtually every municipality prohibit the housing typologies (duplexes, triplexes, mid-rise apartments, accessory dwelling units) that would naturally fill the gap. The Accord does not build housing directly. It removes the regulatory barriers that prevent the private market from building it, and it provides the capital and workforce to execute at scale.

ZRIG (Zoning Reform Incentive Grant)

Conditions federal infrastructure funding on municipalities adopting build-by-right codes: ADUs permitted on all residential lots meeting minimum size, duplexes and triplexes by right in all residential zones, mid-rise (4–6 stories) permitted within one-quarter mile of transit stops, elimination of minimum parking requirements within transit corridors, and no discretionary design-review hearings for infill projects that comply with the code. Non-compliant municipalities lose federal infrastructure allocations on a graduated schedule: 10% reduction Year 1, 25% Year 2, 50% Year 3, 100% Year 4+.

Stress Test: ZRIG Compliance Rate

Not all municipalities will comply. Rural towns with no housing pressure have little incentive. Wealthy suburban enclaves will resist density. The question is whether enough municipalities in high-demand markets comply to produce the 1.3–1.5 million additional units per year the target requires.

There are approximately 19,500 municipalities in the United States. Of these, roughly 3,000 are in metropolitan statistical areas with housing-cost-to-income ratios above 4×—these are the municipalities where new housing is most needed and where ZRIG compliance produces the most units. At a 60% compliance rate among these 3,000 (1,800 municipalities), zoning reform enables roughly 1.0–1.2 million additional permitted units per year in the locations where demand is highest.

The remaining 300,000–500,000 units come from FHSB factory-built scaling (see below), rural ADU uptake, and organic growth in already-permissive markets. At a 40% compliance rate among target municipalities (1,200 complying), the unit yield drops to 600,000–800,000—roughly half the target. This is the downside scenario.

The critical accelerant is the financial penalty: municipalities that resist ZRIG lose federal highway, water, and transit funding on a graduated schedule. For a suburb receiving $10M/year in federal infrastructure grants, the Year 3 penalty is $5M. Most will comply not because they want density but because they want roads. Historical precedent: federal highway funding conditioned on the 21-year drinking age achieved near-universal state compliance within 4 years.

FHSB (Federal Housing Standards Board)

Publishes a unified national building code enabling cross-state factory-built, modular, panelized, and 3D-printed housing. Pre-approved designs receive FAA-style type certification valid nationwide—no additional local building-code review required.

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