{
  "generated": "2026-09-09",
  "scenario": "central",
  "rule": "ROI gate = discounted benefit-cost ratio > 1.0 at the stated real rate [BILL 2026-07-27]. Average and marginal are never conflated (directive 5); a high average return is never, by itself, authorization to expand a stream. The floor, tail insurance and delivery lines are not ROI-tested by design [BILL 2026-08-05].",
  "years": [
    2036,
    2050,
    2079
  ],
  "rows": [
    {
      "key": "defense",
      "label": "Defense",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 1401,
        "2050": 2331,
        "2079": 6364
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 3,
      "class": "tail-insurance",
      "averageReturn": null,
      "marginalReturn": "Bought for the tail, not expected value [BILL 2026-08-05]; floored at 3.0% of GDP [BILL 2026-09-06]. Dominance beyond the floor is a separate appropriation Congress prices explicitly.",
      "gate": "not-tested-by-design",
      "note": "",
      "provenance": "[BILL 2026-08-05; 2026-09-06]"
    },
    {
      "key": "nondefDiscretionary",
      "label": "Non-defense discretionary (retained accounts)",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 954,
        "2050": 1579,
        "2079": 4306
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 2.03,
      "class": "baseline",
      "averageReturn": null,
      "marginalReturn": "Current-law residual on the CBO shape; declines as the Accord's institutions replace what it funds (register item 2b, no floor ruled).",
      "gate": "not-tested-by-design",
      "note": "",
      "provenance": "[CBO baseline]"
    },
    {
      "key": "otherMandatoryResidual",
      "label": "Other mandatory (net of named displacement)",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 1456,
        "2050": 2422,
        "2079": 6611
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 3.12,
      "class": "baseline",
      "averageReturn": null,
      "marginalReturn": "Current-law residual net of named displacement.",
      "gate": "not-tested-by-design",
      "note": "",
      "provenance": "[CBO baseline]"
    },
    {
      "key": "ssBenefits",
      "label": "Social Security 2.0 benefits",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 2747,
        "2050": 4753,
        "2079": 13153
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 6.12,
      "class": "floor",
      "averageReturn": null,
      "marginalReturn": "Not ROI-tested by design: the retirement floor is a labour-supply instrument for the WORKING generation [BILL 2026-08-05] and deferred compensation, not a transfer.",
      "gate": "not-tested-by-design",
      "note": "Programs must earn their keep; people never have to earn their floor.",
      "provenance": "[BILL 2026-08-05]"
    },
    {
      "key": "vhaeNetGF",
      "label": "Distributed Healthcare federal cash (medical + capacity; legacy federal health flows removed from their own lines)",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 6747,
        "2050": 9452,
        "2079": 20840
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 12.16,
      "class": "essential-utility",
      "averageReturn": {
        "low": 2.3,
        "high": 2.8,
        "basis": "Murphy–Topel: ~2.8× on the marginal health dollar in the post-1970 stock (NBS-1 Addendum A); the public register is prudent management of an essential utility, never 'saving'"
      },
      "marginalReturn": "Above the hurdle on the evidence, with the honest caveat that the health-capital flow may have turned negative post-2010 (NBS-1) — the return is to health, not to hospitals.",
      "gate": "clears",
      "note": "The floor itself is not ROI-tested; the DELIVERY design (one payer, four payment methods, the public arm) is.",
      "provenance": "[BILL 2026-07-27 NBS-1]"
    },
    {
      "key": "uca",
      "label": "Universal Child Allowance",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 412,
        "2050": 591,
        "2079": 1283
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0.76,
      "class": "investment",
      "averageReturn": {
        "low": 1.5,
        "high": 2.5,
        "basis": "Family Stability Floor (UCA + Baby Bonds): maternal labour-force participation, child-poverty reduction, stress and health gains — not IQ gains [v10.4 ROI accounting, 2026-05-16]"
      },
      "marginalReturn": "Not known. The 2021 CTC expansion (Ananat et al. 2022) and the Canada Child Benefit (Baker, Messacar and Stabile 2023) measure the average effect of a step change, not the return on the last dollar. Adult earnings-substituting cash is the one category the MVPF work puts near the hurdle (0.5–2.0); the UCA is a child instrument and is designed to stay off that category (capability over cash).",
      "gate": "clears-at-low-end",
      "note": "Enhanced for the FIRST child (base $600 against $300 / $200 for later children) and for the EARLY years (ages 0–3 at 1.333×) by design [v10.3]; the enhancement lands the money where the average return is measured highest (the first 1,000 days) [BILL 2026-09-08: justified by its return].",
      "provenance": "[BILL 2026-05-16 ROI accounting; BILL 2026-09-08 justification]"
    },
    {
      "key": "babyBonds",
      "label": "Baby Bonds (cash outflow from 2048)",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 0,
        "2050": 85,
        "2079": 309
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0.11,
      "class": "investment",
      "averageReturn": {
        "low": 1.5,
        "high": 2.5,
        "basis": "Family Stability Floor class, with the UCA"
      },
      "marginalReturn": "Not known; vests at 18–21, so the return is realised a generation out and is measured only in the Baby Bonds pilots' early cohorts.",
      "gate": "clears-at-low-end",
      "note": "$1,000 at birth + $1,000/yr × 18, vesting 18–21.",
      "provenance": "[BILL 2026-05-16]"
    },
    {
      "key": "childcare",
      "label": "Childcare Plan (Capability Core)",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 24,
        "2050": 37,
        "2079": 101
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0.05,
      "class": "investment",
      "averageReturn": {
        "low": 4,
        "high": 7,
        "basis": "Capability Core: Perry Preschool, Abecedarian, Nurse-Family Partnership — reduced crime, higher earnings, better health over a lifetime; a PV benefit-cost ratio at 3%, never an IRR"
      },
      "marginalReturn": "Falls with scale: the literature measures targeted programmes on the most disadvantaged cohorts; a national buildout to ~15M slots is inframarginally lower, which is why funding is sized to the gap (4.2M slots) rather than to the average return. The Accord supports ACCESS to childcare and closes the slot gap; it does not guarantee childcare for all [BILL 2026-09-08; welfare-ring rule 2026-07-27].",
      "gate": "clears",
      "note": "The Perry / Heckman numbers apply HERE, not to the whole package [canon].",
      "provenance": "[BILL 2026-05-16; NBS-1 Heckman discipline 2026-07-27]"
    },
    {
      "key": "education",
      "label": "Education",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 3,
        "2050": 4,
        "2079": 12
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0.01,
      "class": "investment",
      "averageReturn": null,
      "marginalReturn": "Not established in this repository.",
      "gate": "not-established",
      "note": "The line carries pathway and academy funding; no verified return figure is held. The ROI gate is pending; a line that fails it goes entirely, never 'a bit'.",
      "provenance": "[AI-PROPOSED status, pending workbook]"
    },
    {
      "key": "skillsWallet",
      "label": "Skills Wallet",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 20,
        "2050": 100,
        "2079": 325
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0.13,
      "class": "investment",
      "averageReturn": null,
      "marginalReturn": "Not established. The wallet is a flat $1,000/yr accrual to a $20,000 cap with no multiplier [v10.4]; the return depends on what is bought with it, which is not yet measured.",
      "gate": "not-established",
      "note": "If the wallet fails the gate it goes entirely (advisor 2026-09-07; Bill: a doctrine result, not a fiscal lever).",
      "provenance": "[AI-PROPOSED status, pending workbook]"
    },
    {
      "key": "communityRails",
      "label": "Community rails (Civic Response Network)",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 148,
        "2050": 165,
        "2079": 165
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0.21,
      "class": "delivery",
      "averageReturn": null,
      "marginalReturn": "Delivery capacity (the Civic Response Network); its return is the return of what it delivers.",
      "gate": "not-tested-by-design",
      "note": "",
      "provenance": "[canon: delivery layer is the core of the claim, BILL 2026-08-04]"
    },
    {
      "key": "dcfCompass",
      "label": "COMPASS / National Statistics Board",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 4,
        "2050": 7,
        "2079": 20
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0.01,
      "class": "investment",
      "averageReturn": {
        "low": 8,
        "high": 8,
        "basis": "R&D / measurement class, NBS-1 Addendum B: research ~8×"
      },
      "marginalReturn": "Not known for statistical measurement specifically; COMPASS is the instrument that makes every other line's return measurable, which is the case for it.",
      "gate": "clears",
      "note": "COMPASS / National Statistics Board.",
      "provenance": "[BILL 2026-07-27 NBS-1 B]"
    },
    {
      "key": "adminOps",
      "label": "Administrative operations",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 55,
        "2050": 91,
        "2079": 248
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0.12,
      "class": "delivery",
      "averageReturn": null,
      "marginalReturn": "Administrative operations; governed by the consolidation discipline (every gram of administrative weight that does not contribute to outcome is stripped).",
      "gate": "not-tested-by-design",
      "note": "",
      "provenance": "[directive 7, internal]"
    },
    {
      "key": "infrastructureBacklog",
      "label": "Infrastructure backlog (GF ledger)",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 35,
        "2050": 118,
        "2079": 84
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0.15,
      "class": "investment",
      "averageReturn": {
        "low": 1.7,
        "high": 1.7,
        "basis": "Bom–Ligthart output-elasticity band (0.083 / 0.122 / 0.200), NBS-1 Addendum B: infrastructure ~1.7× at the low end"
      },
      "marginalReturn": "The elasticity band IS the marginal statement: 0.083 at the low end. LEVEL effects only, never growth-rate claims.",
      "gate": "clears",
      "note": "0.45% of GDP floor for the horizon [BILL 2026-09-08]; the ASCE backlog clearance claim is REOPENED (fiscal reset step 1).",
      "provenance": "[BILL 2026-07-27 NBS-1 B]"
    },
    {
      "key": "infrastructureFloorTopUp",
      "label": "Infrastructure statutory floor top-up",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 37,
        "2050": 0,
        "2079": 275
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0,
      "class": "investment",
      "averageReturn": {
        "low": 1.7,
        "high": 1.7,
        "basis": "infrastructure class (Bom–Ligthart band); the top-up is the part of the 0.45%-of-GDP floor the named programmes do not reach"
      },
      "marginalReturn": "The floor runs for the horizon [BILL 2026-09-08]; the marginal dollar is the elasticity band's low end, 0.083, stated as a level effect.",
      "gate": "clears",
      "note": "Statutory floor top-up, seamless — never interrupted at the end of the buildout.",
      "provenance": "[BILL 2026-08-17 floor; BILL 2026-09-08 horizon]"
    },
    {
      "key": "healthNonMedicalGap",
      "label": "Health non-medical lanes above the baseline carriers (perimeter gap)",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 0,
        "2050": 0,
        "2079": 0
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0,
      "class": "unregistered",
      "averageReturn": null,
      "marginalReturn": "UNREGISTERED — this row has no ROI entry; add one to data/obligation-roi.ts",
      "gate": "unregistered",
      "note": "",
      "provenance": ""
    },
    {
      "key": "gridHardening",
      "label": "Grid hardening (GF share)",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 15,
        "2050": 50,
        "2079": 36
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0.06,
      "class": "investment",
      "averageReturn": {
        "low": 1.7,
        "high": 1.7,
        "basis": "infrastructure class; the Black-Sky grid case is cause-of-need GF (Two-Ledger Principle)"
      },
      "marginalReturn": "Partly tail insurance (grid failure) — the expected-value return understates it.",
      "gate": "clears",
      "note": "",
      "provenance": "[BILL 2026-07-27 NBS-1 B; Two-Ledger canon]"
    },
    {
      "key": "dignityFloor",
      "label": "SS Dignity Floor supplement",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 17,
        "2050": 32,
        "2079": 87
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0.04,
      "class": "floor",
      "averageReturn": null,
      "marginalReturn": "Insurance-class; not ROI-tested.",
      "gate": "not-tested-by-design",
      "note": "$1,150/mo for 30-year contributors, ~$13B/yr.",
      "provenance": "[BILL 2026-07-27 adult-transfer doctrine]"
    },
    {
      "key": "transitionCosts",
      "label": "Transition & implementation costs (Yrs 1–8)",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 112,
        "2050": 0,
        "2079": 0
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0,
      "class": "delivery",
      "averageReturn": null,
      "marginalReturn": "One-time standup, Years 1–8.",
      "gate": "not-tested-by-design",
      "note": "",
      "provenance": "[canon]"
    },
    {
      "key": "targetedOutflows",
      "label": "Targeted outflows (Energy Stipend pool etc.)",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 268,
        "2050": 447,
        "2079": 1219
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0.57,
      "class": "pass-through",
      "averageReturn": null,
      "marginalReturn": "Pass-through (the Energy Stipend pool and the Employer Parity community draw): collected to be returned, not budgeted as spending, so it carries no return of its own [directive 12]. The stipend is transitional and ends as households convert [BILL 2026-09-08].",
      "gate": "not-tested-by-design",
      "note": "",
      "provenance": "[directive 12; BILL 2026-09-08]"
    },
    {
      "key": "oblCalibration",
      "label": "Obligation calibration (±)",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 267,
        "2050": 410,
        "2079": 1004
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0.53,
      "class": "calibration",
      "averageReturn": null,
      "marginalReturn": "Not a programme: the obligation-side calibration residual, retired as each line is derived from its own ledger (fiscal reset step 1).",
      "gate": "not-tested-by-design",
      "note": "",
      "provenance": "[BILL 2026-08-10 fiscal reset]"
    }
  ],
  "unregistered": [
    "healthNonMedicalGap"
  ]
}