Key Findings
7 of 8 scenarios favor STAY — the one-time exit tax creates a $238M–$238B barrier that takes ~2–15 years of offshore savings to break even.
STAY / EXIT / MIXED are break-even MODEL outputs — they describe what the math makes economically rational, not any individual's stated plans or intentions.
The one EXIT case (Thiel) is grounded in his own public record: he obtained New Zealand citizenship and has publicly described wanting to exit US jurisdiction.
The "Civilization Premium" works: US capital markets, courts, infrastructure, and talent are worth more than the tax differential in 7 of 8 cases.
The Taylor Swift MIXED case is the one model vulnerability: high-earning creatives with globally portable careers show a ~2-year break-even — but brand and fan-base retention are material non-tax factors the model does not price.
Mark-to-market exit tax is the structural key. Without it, break-even collapses to 0–2 years for several scenarios.
Under current law the wealthiest pay almost nothing as a share of their growing fortunes — ProPublica put Buffett at ~0.10% on his wealth growth — while top earners on salary (LeBron, ~36%) pay near the top of the schedule. The Accord narrows that gap, landing these eight profiles in a ~2%–62% band on a common wealth base.
Cumulative Tax Drag Over 20 Years
Starting wealth: $10M · Annual income: $500K · 7% annual growth. Shows total taxes paid under each regime.
Income figures sourced from public financial disclosures, SEC filings, court records, and credible press reporting (Forbes, Bloomberg Wealth, WSJ). Net-worth estimates are current as of mid-2026 (Musk reflects his June-2026 trillionaire status).
The STAY / EXIT / MIXED verdict and the per-scenario effective rates are model outputs — what the break-even math makes economically rational on a wealth base — not statements about any individual's plans, and not the same metric as ProPublica's “true tax rate” (tax as a share of wealth growth). Externally-reported rates and their citations are shown on the real-world cases page.
NAA calculations apply the rate structures from the DNA vv10.2: payroll tax at 10.5% (employee share), unified income tax brackets (52% top), VAT at 10% net of pre-bate ($3,480/adult), and the v10.4 estate-tax prepayment escalator: 0.75% on wealth above $10M, escalating to 2.5% above $10B.
Exit tax modeled as 23.8% (top long-term capital gains + NIIT) mark-to-market on all unrealized gains as required under IRC §877A. Break-even calculated as: exit tax ÷ (annual NAA tax − annual offshore tax).
All figures are illustrative and based on simplified assumptions. Composite profiles are clearly labeled. This tool is for policy illustration — not tax advice.