The fifty-year promise

The Fiscal Model — Year 10 (2039)

A near-comprehensive fiscal plan, scored end to end: every revenue and obligation line by formula in the master tables. Central anchors: payroll tax 28.0%, top rate 52% paired to the VAT, VAT 10% + luxury supplement, Distributed Healthcare $6.30T central basis. Social Security 2.0 paid from the General Fund; the Debt Sunset Governor moves the top income rate, the VAT and the payroll rate together to hold the projected debt-retirement date; the Climate Adaptation Trust accumulates carbon-fee revenue above the household rebate cap. Hover any bar for details.

Gross Revenue
$15.36T
Rebates Returned
−$0.56T
Net Revenue
$14.80T
Obligations
$15.10T
Trust Deposits
$0.86T
Year-10 balance (scored)
−$2.04T/yr
Revenue Sources → $15.36T Gross
payroll tax (28%)$5.04T
Unified Income Tax (top 52%)$3.40T
Other streams (combined)$2.29T
Value-Added Tax (10% + luxury supplement)$1.60T
Carbon & Climate$1.28T
Corporate Tax$0.93T
Wealth & Estate$0.82T
Years 1–5 also carry the transition surcharges (1.5% on gross receipts above $25M plus 2 points on the corporate book minimum, about $0.47T/yr), which sunset by Year 6 and are absent from this Year-10 snapshot. The Employer Parity Surcharge (~$0.10T/yr) passes through to host communities and is shown in the targeted box at right.
Statutory Rebates → $0.56T Returned
VAT Pre-bate−$0.32T
Energy Stipend (Carbon)−$0.24T
Net Revenue$14.80T
On-Budget Obligations → $15.10T
Distributed Healthcare$6.30T
Social Security 2.0 (paid from GF)$2.27T
Other Programs$1.44T
Defense & Other Federal$1.20T
Debt service (Year 10)$2.59T
Infrastructure$0.68T
Children & Families$0.48T
Education & Skills$0.14T
Ring-Fenced Trust Deposits → $0.86T/yr
Climate Adaptation Trust (growing)$0.83T
Financial Stability Reserve$0.03T
Employer Parity Surcharge → host communities (targeted, not ring-fenced)$0.10T
Climate deposits shown are net of the Expert Panel's early-era draws (technical notes below). The Financial Stability Reserve accumulates from the ~$30B/yr systemic-risk levy toward its ~$200B target within about seven years, then holds, drawn only in systemic events.
Net Revenue − Obligations
$-0.30T
after Distributed Healthcare ($6.30T gross) + debt service ($2.59T) at Year 10
→
Year-10 deployable balance after debt service (Central, scored)
−$2.04T/yr
Read from the executed engine (v11.0). The debt rises through the transition by design, then falls to zero; the Debt Sunset Governor holds the projected retirement date.
Public debt, three scenario pairs: 108% of GDP at launch, rising through the transition by design, then to zero (live engine, percent of GDP)
Optimistic
0%50%100%150%200%203020402050206020702079107% in 2031, by design20%: 2052no external debt: 2055debt-free 2056
Central
0%50%100%150%200%203020402050206020702079110% in 2038, by design20%: 2067no external debt: 2070debt-free 2071
Conservative (the boundary)
0%50%100%150%200%203020402050206020702079122% in 2043, by design20%: 2077no external debt: 2079debt-free 2080
governor live (the executed path)governor idle (the enacted rates alone)CBO current lawdebt held by the public, percent of GDP
Optimistic
Stronger nominal growth than central on the engine's optimistic path; health costs on the low band of the mechanism ledger; the central interest path.
Transition rise, by design107% of GDP in 2031
Falls under the current-law path2030
Automatic steps used0 of 8
Slack absorbednone needed
Debt at 20% of GDP2052
No external debt2055, trusts hold $3.4T
General Fund debt-free2056
Same rates, governor idledebt-free 2056
Central
The engine's central nominal path; health costs on the ruled two-phase convergence with protected lanes; interest on the central path with the executed debt-level feedback.
Transition rise, by design110% of GDP in 2038
Falls under the current-law path2032
Automatic steps used0 of 8
Slack absorbednone needed
Debt at 20% of GDP2067
No external debt2070, trusts hold $7.4T
General Fund debt-free2071
Same rates, governor idledebt-free 2071
Conservative (the boundary)
The central economy deteriorated along all three axes to the combined frontier the governor still absorbs: nominal growth 0.19pp a year below central, a 50bp interest premium, and health costs 4.5% above the ruled path, all at once and from 2030.
Transition rise, by design122% of GDP in 2043
Falls under the current-law path2032
Automatic steps used8 of 8
Slack absorbed+2pp top rate, +2pp VAT, +0.5pp payroll
Debt at 20% of GDP2077
No external debt2079, trusts hold $10.4T
General Fund debt-free2080
Same rates, governor idledoes not close by 2079
Transition rise, by design: 110% of GDP in 2038 on the central pathZero here is General Fund debt-free: the fund owes nothing to the public or to the trusts. No external debt comes earlier, in 2070, when net borrowing from outside the government reaches zero and the two trusts hold $7.4T of Treasuries.
Our grandchildren will not inherit this debt. Central (closes with no automatic step), optimistic (closes with no automatic step), stress beyond boundary (reported, does not close). Success is the central case closing: the launch rates are set so it retires the debt by the statutory 2080 with no automatic step, and the Debt Sunset Governor holds the projected retirement date inside its automatic band.
Optimistic
From central: Growth and health cost only. Every rate, floor and program is the same.
From CBO: CBO projects current law, with deficits compounding. This path adds the Accord's revenue and programs and grows faster.
Central
From central: This is the reference.
From CBO: CBO projects current law. Central replaces FICA and premiums with the flat payroll tax, adds the VAT with its prebate, the paired top rate and the wealth-transfer stack, and runs the single payer; the transition years cost more than current law by design, then the surplus retires the debt.
Conservative (the boundary)
From central: Weaker growth (0.19pp a year), dearer borrowing (+50bp) and dearer care (+4.5%), together. Rates, floors and programs are the same; the governor's automatic steps close the gap.
From CBO: Central against current law, on a worse economy. Current law has no mechanism that answers a worse economy; this path does.

Stress, beyond the boundary: A fixed worse economy beyond the frontier the automatic steps absorb; reported, never suppressed. It spends all 8 automatic steps and does not retire the debt inside the horizon; peak 180% of GDP. Beyond the boundary Congress holds the next move. Published VAT 10%, paired top rate 52%. CBO path: CBO, The Long-Term Budget Outlook (March 2025): debt held by the public 100% of GDP in 2025, 118% in 2035, 156% in 2055; interpolated and extended past 2055 at the 2045-2055 slope.

▲ = the Debt Sunset Governor steps the top income rate, the VAT and the payroll rate up together (one step: +0.25pp top rate, +0.25pp VAT, +0.0625pp payroll) · ▼ = steps back down as the projected date comes in early.
Stress, beyond boundary▲×8
Payroll 28.5% peak, 28% floor · top rate 54% peak · beyond the band; Congress holds the next move
Centralno step
Payroll 28% peak, 28% floor · top rate 52% peak · closes
Optimisticno step
Payroll 28% peak, 28% floor · top rate 52% peak · closes
Automatic moves are limited to a total of +2.0pp on the top income rate, +2.0pp on the VAT and +0.5pp on the payroll rate from the launch rates, mirrored downward for relief; changes beyond the band require Congress. The conservative case is the boundary: the deterioration in growth, health cost and the interest premium, after the launch rates are set, that the governor's 8 automatic steps still absorb; it closes with all of them. The stress case beyond that boundary is reported as measured, never suppressed.
Climate Adaptation Trust: Accumulates 100% of carbon-fee revenue above the household rebate cap, its sole source (the Methane Accountability and Reduction Levy routes to the General Fund). Ring-fenced; statutorily insulated from General Fund appropriation. Disbursed by the Expert Panel on Climate Resilience across the ~200-year arc of climate impacts, accumulating during the decarbonization window and drawn down to fund infrastructure mitigation (coastal defense, grid hardening, water resilience, wildfire hardening) as physical-climate damage materializes. Revenue tapers as decarbonization succeeds; there will never be another opportunity to capitalize a trust of this scale from carbon revenue.
Test these numbers under different assumptions
Fiscal Scoring renders the same flows as a live diagram: revenue → General Fund → expenditures → surplus, with sliders for payroll tax, top rate, VAT, carbon, and corporate. The bars on this page show the central case; the Scoring page lets you change the assumptions.
Fiscal Scoring →
Technical notes
  1. Line items are Year-10 central anchors, rounded independently; column arithmetic nets $-1.16T before the contingency reserve and rounding. The scored Year-10 deployable balance, read from the executed engine, is −$2.04T/yr: negative through the transition by design, while the legacy programs run beside the new ones and the VAT ladder climbs. The scenario chart renders live from the same engine; converted taxes blend from current-law baselines because rates are Day-1 effective, and a transition-cost line (about $0.5T in Year 1, tapering to zero by Year 8) carries dual-running administration and systems buildout.
  2. The governor strip above reads the engine's measured step counts and peak rates per scenario, regenerated at every build. The engine also records residual-stress years, in which the projected deployable balance four years out runs negative even on the coupled rate path already set: a diagnostic; the trigger is the projected retirement date. The stress case marks 56 of 60 projected years, Central 18, Optimistic 5.
  3. The calibration residual is retired against the four derived instruments, each net of what the engine already books: the tax expenditures the plan closes, the ended charitable deduction with the donor-entity block, and the Land-Value Surcharge; the accession register was already booked from the wealth model. The remaining verification step is to copy their source cells (JCT, CRS, the Fed's Z.1, Giving USA, NPT, OMB) at source.
  4. Climate Adaptation Trust expenditures follow an Expert Panel era-discipline schedule (about $8–25B/yr in the first decade, rising through the buildout decades), a modeling schedule; the Panel sets actual disbursements.
  5. Financial Stability Reserve draw size and refill are hypothesized for illustration.
  6. Interest on the debt carries executed feedback: 3bp on the marginal rate per point of debt-to-GDP above the scenario's own 2030 ratio, symmetric, bounded at ±200bp. The +50bp flat rate premium is published as a stress.
  7. VAT standard rate steps 3.7 / 5.9 / 8.1 / 10% over Years 1–4, with the marginal-excess luxury supplement (6% of the amount above per-category indexed floors) live from Year 1; the transition surcharges carry the early window and sunset by Year 6. Prebate envelope ≈ $323B/yr, paid per person (about $95/adult + $34/child monthly).
  8. Sources: 2026 OASDI Trustees Report (ssa.gov/oact/tr/2026); CMS National Health Expenditure 2024; CBO baseline projections; the executed fiscal engine (lib/fiscal-engine.ts) and its master tables.
Architecture version: v11.0
Scoring version: v11.0, scored end to end by the executed engine (rerun 2026-09-09)
Engine source: computeProjection (governor-ON, statutory Debt Sunset Governor)