55-year projection · v11.0 · rerun 2026-09-09
Dynamic Fiscal Model
CBO baseline vs The Accord · Interactive scoring
Architecture version: v11.0
Scoring version: v11.0, scored end to end by the executed engine (rerun 2026-09-09)
Engine source: computeProjection (governor-ON, statutory Debt Sunset Governor)
2039
CBO: Deficit $1.79T
Accord: Surplus $1.41T
Income TaxCorporateVATWealth+EstateFinancial Transactions Tax+too-big-to-fail bankPayroll taxCarbon / ClimateSurplusClimate Trust
All projections are in nominal dollars, grown at 4% per year (CBO central path: 1.8% real GDP + 2.2% CPI-U). Source: CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2025 to 2035 (January 2025). Long-run extrapolation 2036–2079 holds the same 4% nominal growth, consistent with CBO, The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2025 to 2055 (March 2025). Use the “% GDP” toggle above to remove the nominal-dollar drift.
Small revenue streams are combined into “Other streams”; transition surcharges appear in 2030–2034 and sunset; the Employer Parity Surcharge passes through to host communities (targeted, not ring-fenced). Spending carries the legacy Medicare/Medicaid and standup dual-run line until absorption completes. The transition years cost more than the status quo by design, so the chart runs a deficit through the early 2030s and crosses into surplus on the same schedule as the detail model. See the technical notes on /scoring/detail for model hypotheses.
Controls
The Deal
Payroll tax Rate
28.0%
Top Income Tax
52%
VAT Rate
10.0%
VAT Pre-bate / adult
$1,141/yr
Carbon Start
$80/ton
Carbon Esc.
$30/yr
Corporate
30%
Estate Tax Prepayment
1.3%
Land-Value Surcharge (terminal)
0.75%
Year-1 starts at 0.15%; +0.075%/yr to terminal at Year 9.
Wealth Struck Down
Programs
Distributed Healthcare
$6.30T
Defense
3.2%
Social Security
$1.98T
Child Allowance (total cost)
$0.35T
Infrastructure (Year 3 rate)
$0.30T
Energy Stipend / adult (household only)
$700/yr
Child Allowance 1st child (household only)
$600/mo
Economy
GDP Growth
5.0%
Growth is under-wired here: these charts respond to it far more weakly than federal revenue does in reality, so a slower economy can look fiscally better. Use the stress lab, which runs the engine.
Starting Debt
$38.1T
Blended Rate
3.5%
Immigration
+0.2pp
Fed
Fed Start
4.5%
Inflation
2.0%
Neutral Floor
2.5%
Shocks
Recession Yr
None
Tier 2.5 · Not CBO microsimulation
The fiscal path
Three scenarios, each a pair: the enacted rates alone, and with the governor live
A near-comprehensive fiscal plan, scored end to end: every revenue and obligation line by formula. Debt held by the public rises through the transition by design, while the legacy programs run beside the new ones and the VAT ladder climbs, then falls to zero. The launch rates are set so the central case retires the debt by the statutory 2080 with no automatic step; the conservative case is the boundary the governor’s automatic steps still absorb, and the stress case beyond it is reported as measured. CBO’s current-law path is drawn beside each pair.
Optimistic
Central
Conservative (the boundary)
governor live (the executed path)governor idle (the enacted rates alone)CBO current lawdebt held by the public, percent of GDP
Optimistic
Stronger nominal growth than central on the engine's optimistic path; health costs on the low band of the mechanism ledger; the central interest path.
Transition rise, by design107% of GDP in 2031
Falls under the current-law path2030
Automatic steps used0 of 8
Slack absorbednone needed
Debt at 20% of GDP2052
No external debt2055, trusts hold $3.4T
General Fund debt-free2056
Same rates, governor idledebt-free 2056
Central
The engine's central nominal path; health costs on the ruled two-phase convergence with protected lanes; interest on the central path with the executed debt-level feedback.
Transition rise, by design110% of GDP in 2038
Falls under the current-law path2032
Automatic steps used0 of 8
Slack absorbednone needed
Debt at 20% of GDP2067
No external debt2070, trusts hold $7.4T
General Fund debt-free2071
Same rates, governor idledebt-free 2071
Conservative (the boundary)
The central economy deteriorated along all three axes to the combined frontier the governor still absorbs: nominal growth 0.19pp a year below central, a 50bp interest premium, and health costs 4.5% above the ruled path, all at once and from 2030.
Transition rise, by design122% of GDP in 2043
Falls under the current-law path2032
Automatic steps used8 of 8
Slack absorbed+2pp top rate, +2pp VAT, +0.5pp payroll
Debt at 20% of GDP2077
No external debt2079, trusts hold $10.4T
General Fund debt-free2080
Same rates, governor idledoes not close by 2079
Optimistic
From central: Growth and health cost only. Every rate, floor and program is the same.
From CBO: CBO projects current law, with deficits compounding. This path adds the Accord's revenue and programs and grows faster.
Central
From central: This is the reference.
From CBO: CBO projects current law. Central replaces FICA and premiums with the flat payroll tax, adds the VAT with its prebate, the paired top rate and the wealth-transfer stack, and runs the single payer; the transition years cost more than current law by design, then the surplus retires the debt.
Conservative (the boundary)
From central: Weaker growth (0.19pp a year), dearer borrowing (+50bp) and dearer care (+4.5%), together. Rates, floors and programs are the same; the governor's automatic steps close the gap.
From CBO: Central against current law, on a worse economy. Current law has no mechanism that answers a worse economy; this path does.
Stress, beyond the boundary: A fixed worse economy beyond the frontier the automatic steps absorb; reported, never suppressed. It spends all 8 automatic steps and does not retire the debt inside the horizon; peak 180% of GDP. Beyond the boundary Congress holds the next move. Published VAT 10%, paired top rate 52%. CBO path: CBO, The Long-Term Budget Outlook (March 2025): debt held by the public 100% of GDP in 2025, 118% in 2035, 156% in 2055; interpolated and extended past 2055 at the 2045-2055 slope.
Architecture version: v11.0
Scoring version: v11.0, scored end to end by the executed engine (rerun 2026-09-09)
Engine source: computeProjection (governor-ON, statutory Debt Sunset Governor)