Fiscal Scoring

Dynamic Fiscal Model

DNA v21 · CBO baseline vs The Accord · Interactive scoring

Fiscal projection v9.1
Three-scenario v9.1 scorecard
These sliders are harmonized across Funds Flow and the Detail tabs — change one, the other inherits.
Conservative
−$836B
Year-10 deployable balance (2039)
Debt peak
$197.97T / 2069
Retirement
2087
Central
+$953B
Year-10 deployable balance (2039)
Debt peak
$80.04T / 2045
Retirement
2061
Optimistic
+$2.77T
Year-10 deployable balance (2039)
Debt peak
$62.11T / 2038
Retirement
2052
60-year external debt trajectory
$0T$10T$20T$30T$40T$50T$60T2030204020502060207020802089208720612052
Conservative
Central
Optimistic
Confidence:
Yr 1–10
Yr 11–20
Yr 21–40
Yr 41–60
Policy Sliders
28.0%
55.0%
10.0%
$10.0M
$36/t/yr
0
$600/mo
$165B
Parameter sensitivity — Year-10 deployable balance
VHA-E basis (target vs conservative)
±$700B · toggle
Immigration annual target
±$250B · range
VAT (standard)
±$215B · per 1pp
TCL total
±$140B · per 1pp
Top income bracket
±$40B · per 1pp
Community envelope scaler
±$30B · per 10%
UCA first-child
±$30B · per $100/mo
Capacity stretch (from 25-yr base)
±$15B · per yr
Wealth threshold
±$20B · per $5M
SS Dignity Floor
±$15B · per $100/mo
Model consistency checks
central: external debt monotonically non-increasing after peak
optimistic: external debt monotonically non-increasing after peak
Optimistic ≥ Central ≥ Conservative for every year ≥ 2036
Central retires external debt by 2090 (got: 2061)
Two-ledger health view (2039)
Ledger 1 — National resource
What the country consumes in real healthcare.
Admin savings
−$420B
Price reform
−$380B
Preventive savings
−$180B
Benefit expansion
+$240B
Desert buildout
+$90B
Catch-up utilization
+$120B
Net 2039−$530B
Ledger 2 — Federal cash
What the Treasury writes checks for.
Gross VHA-E
+$5.55T
Captured Medicare
−$900B
Captured Medicaid
−$520B
Captured other fed
−$200B
Legacy overlap
−$50B
Net 2039+$3.88T
Funds FlowRevenueObligationsSurplus & DebtHouseholdSS TrustClimateSensitivity
2035
Deficit: $1.68T
CBO Baseline

This view shows the current Congressional Budget Office baseline trajectory. All tax revenue flows into the central General Fund bar, and all GF spending flows out. The hatched overlay at the bottom of the GF bar shows the deficit — spending that exceeds revenue.

Ring-fenced flows (Social Security, healthcare premiums) bypass the General Fund entirely, flowing through their own trust or directly to spending.

Switch to The Accord to see how the NAA restructures these flows, eliminates the deficit, and unlocks interactive sliders.

Deficit: $1.68T in 2035 — financed by Treasury borrowing, adding to the national debt.
Income TaxCorporateExcisePayroll / FICAMedicare With.PremiumsOOPDeficit (hatched)
View detailed fiscal model →

How to read this diagram: Revenue sources on the left flow into the central General Fund bar. Spending flows out of it to the right. The flow band widths are proportional to dollar amounts at a fixed scale. Ring-fenced flows (Social Security, healthcare premiums, carbon) bypass the GF entirely, flowing through their own trusts or directly to spending destinations.

Key insight: Under the current CBO trajectory, growing deficits and compounding interest consume an ever-larger share of the budget. The Accord eliminates private health insurance premiums, consolidates revenue through broader instruments, and generates a structural surplus used to retire the national debt.