Fiscal Scoring
Dynamic Fiscal Model
DNA v21 · CBO baseline vs The Accord · Interactive scoring
Fiscal projection v9.1
Three-scenario v9.1 scorecard
These sliders are harmonized across Funds Flow and the Detail tabs — change one, the other inherits.
Conservative
−$836B
Year-10 deployable balance (2039)
Debt peak
$197.97T / 2069
Retirement
2087
Central
+$953B
Year-10 deployable balance (2039)
Debt peak
$80.04T / 2045
Retirement
2061
Optimistic
+$2.77T
Year-10 deployable balance (2039)
Debt peak
$62.11T / 2038
Retirement
2052
60-year external debt trajectory
Conservative
Central
Optimistic
Confidence:Yr 1–10
Yr 11–20
Yr 21–40
Yr 41–60
Policy Sliders
28.0%
55.0%
10.0%
$10.0M
$36/t/yr
0
$600/mo
$165B
Parameter sensitivity — Year-10 deployable balance
VHA-E basis (target vs conservative)±$700B · toggle
Immigration annual target±$250B · range
VAT (standard)±$215B · per 1pp
TCL total±$140B · per 1pp
Top income bracket±$40B · per 1pp
Community envelope scaler±$30B · per 10%
UCA first-child±$30B · per $100/mo
Capacity stretch (from 25-yr base)±$15B · per yr
Wealth threshold±$20B · per $5M
SS Dignity Floor±$15B · per $100/mo
Model consistency checks
✓central: external debt monotonically non-increasing after peak
✓optimistic: external debt monotonically non-increasing after peak
✓Optimistic ≥ Central ≥ Conservative for every year ≥ 2036
✓Central retires external debt by 2090 (got: 2061)
Two-ledger health view (2039)
Ledger 1 — National resource
What the country consumes in real healthcare.
Admin savings−$420B
Price reform−$380B
Preventive savings−$180B
Benefit expansion+$240B
Desert buildout+$90B
Catch-up utilization+$120B
Net 2039−$530B
Ledger 2 — Federal cash
What the Treasury writes checks for.
Gross VHA-E+$5.55T
Captured Medicare−$900B
Captured Medicaid−$520B
Captured other fed−$200B
Legacy overlap−$50B
Net 2039+$3.88T
Revenue Waterfall (Year 10, Full Phase-In)
Revenue Instruments ($T, 2038)
Full phase-in year. Pre-bate (0.0%-income offset) and energy stipend shown as negative bars. Net total = $17.04T.
Revenue Composition Over Time
Revenue Composition ($T)
Internal Accord estimate. Revenue = base x rate x (1-e) x realization. CBO/JCT elasticities.
Revenue as % of GDP
Revenue as % of GDP: Accord vs CBO Baseline
CBO historical federal revenue 16-18% of GDP. Accord captures lifecycle revenue at ~22-25% through broader base.
Tier 2.5 · 7 loops · CBO interest 2.8% · baselines from CBO/EPA projections · not: distributions, regional, GE labor, stochastic, state responses
Controls
The Deal
TCL Rate
27.0%
VAT Rate
9.0%
Carbon Start
$80/ton
Carbon Esc.
$36/yr
Corporate
30%
Wealth Levy
1.3%
Wealth Struck Down
Programs
VHA-E Cost
$6.25T
Defense
3.2%
UCA 1st Child
$600/mo
Economy
GDP Growth
4.0%
Starting Debt
$39T
Blended Rate
3.5%
Immigration
+0.2pp
Fed
Fed Start
4.5%
Inflation
2.0%
Neutral Floor
2.5%
Shocks
Recession Yr
None
Tier 2.5 · Not CBO microsimulation